George Barna Shocks Everyone By Admitting Gross Miscalculations About The Decline Of The Local Church!
I’m not a gambling man, but I’ll bet the house you’ll NEVER see a newspaper with that headline.
If you’ve followed George Barna’s books for any length of time you know that he’s been dissing the local church for, like, ever.
By now you’ve probably heard about the slow-building mass hysteria that's been affecting local churches nationwide because of George Barna’s book entitled Revolution.
In Revolution Barna predicts,
"As we entered the twenty-first century, the local church was the focus of most people’s spiritual lives. About 70 percent of all Americans relied upon some local congregation to be their dominant source of spiritual input and output…I have concluded that by the year 2025…only about one-third of the population will rely upon a local congregation as the primary or exclusive means for experiencing and expressing their faith…" (Page 48-49)
I wasn’t a math major in college, but I’m pretty sure that’s more than a 50% drop in church participation nationwide in less than two decades. That’s a startling prediction.
Fortunately we know we can trust Barna. He has a proven track record predicting future trends. If you doubt this I’d suggest you rummage through your local discount bookstore and find another book by Barna: The Frog in the Kettle: What Christians Need to Know about Life in the Year 2000. His predictions in that book, made almost two decades ago, are just as bold as the ones made in his latest one.
For instance, most of us have all kinds of extra time on our hands thanks to Barna’s prediction that,
"Genetic advances will provide us with the gardener’s dream -- a self-weeding lawn -- by 1993." (p. 59)
Just like you, for years now I’ve watched the dandelions on my lawn just disappear overnight. Just disappear. I always wondered how that happened.
Elsewhere in The Frog and the Kettle, Barna predicted with deadly accuracy the number one societal problem in America today: the hostile take over of entry-level jobs in the fast-food industry by robots,
"…Robots will be developed which will perform basic, routine functions both in business (burger flipping, hospital orderly functions) and at home." (p. 58)
Finally, the most upsetting prediction Barna made in The Frog and the Kettle has to do with the same prediction Barna made in Revolution: church participation will decline! Almost two decades ago he predicted,
"By 2000…less than 40 percent of the population will even associate themselves with a protestant denomination." (p. 117)
Again, let me remind you that I am not a mathematician, so you will have to take what I am about to say with a grain of salt, but didn’t I just quote something from Revolution that read, something like, “As we entered the twenty-first century …about 70 percent of all Americans relied upon some local congregation to be their dominant source of spiritual input and output”?
Wasn’t that, by Barna’s own acknowledgement, more than a 30% increase between 1990 and 2000 instead of a decrease?
George, take it from me and other pastors and hard-working Christ-followers from all across the country – quit crapping on the local church with your negative and wildly inaccurate predictions.
We need you to use your platform and keen insight to build up the body of Christ. Sure local churches have lots of room for improvement. Sure we pastors blow it at times, me most of all. But we still believe, in the midst of all of this dysfunction and chaos, that the local church is the hope of the world.
God is powerfully working through all the things you keep despising –churches with buildings, megachurches, 200 year old mainline churches, and every variation in between.
I for one have never been more hopeful about what I see happening in local churches across the country. And I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one.
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Comments (9)
Anonymous on Aug 13, 2009 8:24am
To be fair to Barna, notice that his frist quote says "protestant denominations." Mainline protestant denominations HAVE declined a lot. I don't have stats in front of me, but he was pretty close on that. In the second stat he says "some local congregation."
I think Revolution had some good points, but that it was guilty of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater."
Stan Kirtlan on Aug 13, 2009 9:06am
Well said. Some of his stuff is based on solid statistical research, best in the business. But predicting the future may not be his forte! Effective churches are on the move.
Anon on Aug 13, 2009 10:24am
Stan- What are the measurements of an "Effective" church?
Number of attendees?
Percent occupancy?
Per Giving Unit benchmarks?
Number of congregational sponsored missionaries?
Number of small groups?
Or is it more about spiritual growth?
Not a pastor but curious.
Daniel Karistai on Aug 13, 2009 10:37am
I'm not the hugest fan of barna because I too have felt that he's created a sense of paranoia amongst smaller church through his apocalyptic type predictions for a while now.
Honestly, though, when I read this: "We need you to use your platform and keen insight to build up the body of Christ..." at the end of the blog that's full of sarcasm and essentially "crapping on" Barna over the scary, and often inaccurate, predictions it comes off as inauthentic at best, elitist at worst.
Remember, you have a platform and insight as well. What are you building up in this blog?
Camilo Ruan on Aug 13, 2009 12:23pm
Brian,
Surely you're not denying that the church in general is in radical freefall/decline in terms of level of interest, involvement, participation & influence over the last 25-50 years. It is dismal at best and alarming at worst. I don't think Barna slamming local pastors as much as taking a look at reality. I have not read his current book, but to me it seems all his books have the same theme. “The church is dying”
I happen to think he’s right.
You may not hear it as much because as a pastor you are in “church mindset” all day. I mean, you live it, breathe it, plan it, build it all day in your head. But even as pastor of an outward focused church like CCV…trust me on this- you perspective is skewed. For every CCV that is growing, there are THOUSANDS of churches every year that can barely stay afloat & quite simply- die. Mostly their own fault for being closed minded and ineffective, but also a reflection on lack of interest from people towards church itself. Vicious cycle I guess. If CCV has grown to 2,000 people in ten years, there are probably twice to three the amount of people that have left church altogether in that same time. Outside of church people you won't hear much about church except generally in a negative "why would anyone go there"? comments. Especially among younger people.
Also, I think Barna overestimates the amount of people that even GO to church already. So I never read his books for the opposite reason you may not. I think he has an inflated version of how influential Christianity still is. Take NYC for example. How many people live in the Metro area? Like 20 million including Connecticut and North Jersey? If you counted the people sitting in church on Sunday morning I don't think you'd find more than **maybe** 200,000- 10% maximum? And I think that way generous. When you look at the 20-40 year old demographic, the numbers are even more dismal.
Oh, and regarding robots. YOU HAVE TO TRY OUT Roomba vaccum cleaner. http://store.irobot.com/home/index.jsp It may not flip burgers but it will vacuum your house while you're gone. Completely RAD!
Just Saying.
Brian Jones on Aug 13, 2009 1:46pm
Camilo I would say a few things...
1. No-one has the foggiest idea how many people go to church in America each week. There's no way to reliably measure that. The only thing that analysts do know for sure is that the average American lies a lot, so it’s probably safe to assume that the numbers of any church attendance survey are inflated.
2. For years Barna has promoted poll results in his books and on his website that Evangelical Christians have taken as authoritative based on 1,000 phone interviews. 1,000 phone interviews will give us an accurate sampling of the 300,000,000 people who live in this country? Seriously? That's like saying you could interview 1 person out of the 2,000+ people who attend CCV on life, beliefs, behavior, etc., and say you have a reasonably accurate picture of what the average person thinks and believes at our church. It's ridiculous. More important, how psychologically unbalanced do you have to be to want to sit through a random 20 minute phone survey? And you're going to take 1,000 such people and get a balanced picture of American religious life and thought?
3. Barna has a platform, a big one in fact, simply because he was the first game in the evangelical town. Because there is no other "Evangelical demographer" out there throwing stats around, he goes unquestioned. Who stands up and questions him from a demographic viewpoint? Having gone to a mainline seminary I can tell that very few in mainline Christianity gives his observations any credence, let alone in the Roman Catholic Church. How do you think he would write if 2-3 different organizations just like his (in comparable scope and size) existed in the evangelical community? How would he shape and deliver his observations differently?
4. Barna is profoundly pessimistic about the power of the local church. I say that because I own every Barna book he’s ever written. I’ve read them all. He has a clear bias that seemed to start to shift to a distinctively negative and cynical tone when he stopped doing the Charles E. Fuller Institute speaking circuit with Carl George, Doug Murren, Bob Logan and others. Not sure what happened around that timeframe, but you can start to trace a distinctly cynical tone about the local church. Check it out for yourself. User-Friendly Churches seems to be written by a completely different person that Revolution. My hunch is he began to do what anyone in his shoes would have done – attempt to reshape the church into an image that works for him. As a result, if you read his last two books, Barna would have us all going to small house churches with characteristics not coincidentally perfect for analytical bookish introverts.
5. My issue is when you have a platform as large as his and you bear the name of Christ, you have a responsibility to deliver data in constructive kingdom-building ways. That doesn’t mean you lie or skew the data, it means you have to go to great length to remove your own personal biases out of the delivery of the data. Any grad student at a secular university would look at the way he draws conclusions and say, “That’s just not responsible.”
Now to your question…I see great life and potential in local churches in our area and around this country, not just my own. While I do notice great ineffectiveness in places, I do not see wholesale decline. In fact, I see just the opposite, and I travel a lot of places and know a lot of pastors in lots of locations. Of course my “data” is limited, personal, biased and anecdotal, but I know I’m not alone in my observation.
Camilo, my hunch is that people who have latent negative energy toward the church tend to see negative church situations everywhere (i.e. you buy a red Honda and start to notice red Hondas everywhere) and as a result can only foresee negative consequences for the local church in the future.
Call me ridiculous, but I see incredible things happening in the local church across the country – both in terms of growth and life change.
Brian
Bill Grandi (cycleguy) on Aug 13, 2009 3:06pm
My problem: I quit reading Barna years ago. I think now he is "single focused" on dissing the local church because if I understand correctly he is into the "house church" thingy. I had enough of that and all the negativity toward the local church with the youth pastor who just left. He made a statement that the megachurch will implode within 5 years. Then says he wants to work only with the Sr. High youth. I told him that it is interesting because the only church who could possibly hire him to focus on that one group is the church he says will implode. 'Nuff said. I prefer to believe, not Barna, but the bible that says "the gates of hell will not prevail against the church."
Ethan Magness on Aug 13, 2009 5:34pm
Brian,
You broke my heart today. I get your blog through a reader and I see the titles first. I was leaping for Joy and praising God only to be heart broken.
I quit trusting Barna years ago. I still read his books because I knew others would ask me about what he was writing. But both his methods and his message seemed deeply suspect to me.
Gary on Aug 15, 2009 6:48pm
I have always thought Barna asks questions in such a way to get a desired answer.